Worst Case Scenario III: Into the Fire
by J.T. Tate

2003

September - The revelation of possible UN intervention horrifies the Patriots and even gives many Loyalists a shock, and many of them go AWOL and refuse to fight anymore. President Hastert then orders a full-scale assault on Loyalist territory. Many cities and towns now welcome the patriot government as liberators and suspected Loyalists begin to be beaten and even killed by mobs. Vice President Rodham-Clinton is killed when a plane bombs her headquarters in Chappaqua; President Gore is found dead in his headquarters in Western New York. On September 22 Loyalist Acting President Edward Kennedy meets with General Myers to negotiate a surrender. A week later, a cease-fire is declared and the Second Civil War is over.

The Chinese Civil War is in full throttle, however. Kim Jong Il sends North Korean forces into China to assist the Chicoms. Another nuclear attack by the Chicoms against a rebel-held base brings more outrage and more rebels. When a conventional missile from China hits the Taiwanese capital of Taipei, their government openly declared that the time for reunification is at hand and begins mobilizing its forces. Japan and South Korea prepare for war as well; Japan is especially readying itself, instituting the conscription of thousands upon thousands to defend the island nation and quietly suspending Article 9 of the constitution. US forces in South Korea, openly Patriot since the coup, are ordered to prepare for battle themselves, whether from a Chicom attack or from invasion from North Korea.

October-December - Rebuilding begins in America. While much of the nation only saw major disruption of services and, other areas are smoldering battle zones. President Hastert begins to tour these areas along with Patriot leaders John McCain and Orrin Hatch, as well as former Loyalist leaders John Edwards and Bob Kerrey. Both sides pledge to rebuild the nation and heal the wounds which tore it apart. Many Patriots are quick to add that this is the restoration of Congressional rule "as the founding fathers intended." The last bits of open resistance are crushed in the Southwest and many supposed supporters of the Aztlan government are rounded up and executed, imprisoned, or deported. Mexican President Fox is warned that any attempt to repatriate these people will be seen as an act of war by the United States, which now stations thousands of troops along the border with orders of "shoot to kill." Thousands of Americans are conscripted into rebuilding projects and military service to ensure security and bring the nation back onto its feet. Alaska and Hawaii vote to remain independent, and the US government agrees to this but keeping them in economic union with the USA.

In the far East, Taiwanese forces are fighting alongside Chinese rebels in the stalemate that the civil war has become. Russia and Mongolia declare their neutrality in the war but secretly support the rebels to increase their own power and prestige. The Middle East, which has been quiescent over the last few months, starts to make noise again as a large missile from the Islamic Republic of Jordan hits Israeli West Jerusalem as Jordanian, Syrian, and Arabian forces invade Israel. The new Arab-Israeli war takes an interesting turn as Egyptian President Mubarak uses his military not to attack Israel but to heavily crack down on all suspected fundamentalist sympathizers in Egypt. Israeli troops are able to beat back their Arab invaders and then move into enemy territory. Amman falls in late November; Damascus two weeks later. Lebanon rises up in revolt against its Syrian occupiers and the Israelis sweep into that nation. Jordan's fundamentalist government is overthrown by the military who begins to negotiate with Israel.

2004

January-March - The Arab-Israeli war ends with a negotiated cease fire. Israel pulls out of Amman but will maintain a presence along the East Bank. Lebanon accepts an Israeli occupation to prevent fundamentalist takeover. Israel continues to occupy Damascus as the Syrians move their capital to Aleppo. Syria is uninvolved with the negotiations but leaves the war by default.
The Chinese civil war has become a war of attrition. The southern coastal areas of China are in rebel hands; the north and interior are in Communist hands. Due to the distraction of the PLA, Tibetans join in the revolt; Xinjiang is still under PLA control but that doesn't stop Muslim insurgents from guerilla tactics. Mongolian forces also make incursions into Chinese Inner Mongolia, and Russia threatens to intervene if the civil war begins to spill out of China's border.

The state of emergency is declared over in the United States. The new Congress (with Democratic representation for the first time in months) is able to pass several constitutional amendments (called by some the New Bill of Rights and by others the Anti-Bill of Rights), the most significant being the 30th Amendment, allowing Congress to override a Supreme Court decision with a 2/3 majority and a Presidential signature within 90 days of the ruling. Others include the 28th, reaffirming America's freedom of religion and religious expression (including the pledge of allegiance, "In God We Trust", and the freedom of religious groups to receive federal funds); the 29th, excluding from citizenship those born to illegal aliens; the 31st, affirming the use of the death penalty; and the 32nd, officially allowing the Congress to grant emergency powers to the President in times of declared war, insurrection, and severe national emergency. Nearly four years after the bungled election that set these events in motion, a bipartisan panel with international observation rules that George Bush indeed won the state of Florida and the 2000 election, making people wonder if he could have done a better job (though even many Democrats feel that few could have done worse than what actually happened). On hearing this, Bush announces his candidacy for the 2004 election.

April-August - Though Jordan and Iran are lost, other nations (such as Malaysia, Oman, Yemen, and Algeria) begin falling to the fundamentalist tide. Sultan Mullah Omar, who himself has been seen by the fundamentalists as the great savior of Islam and the political and spiritual "leader of the faithful," makes a goodwill tour of much of the Islamic world. At the Hajj that year, the mob of millions proclaim Mullah Omar caliph of the Islamic world and this is ratified by a meeting of the Organization of the Islamic Coference. Moderate Muslims see this as abhorrent, as do the Shi'ites in Iran and the Islamic Republic of Chaldea (former Southern Iraq). General Muammar Qaddafi surprises the world as he announces an alliance with Egypt and the Jordanian military government to try to stop the fundamentalist tide. Civil wars rage in partially Muslim nations such as Nigeria, Sudan, Ethiopia, and Kenya.

Not much new in the Chinese war except for more death and a continued stalemate. The rebellion is able to gain control of a few areas, though these gains are minor at best; the leadership in Beijing is still promising that the "counterrevolutionaries" will be annihilated. The Dalai Lama, aged and ill but with an unbroken spirit, is allowed to return to Tibet for the first time in five decades. His Holiness begins calling on both sides to discuss their differences and to come to peaceful terms for the good of China, the Far East, and all of humanity.
The European Union, now consisting of virtually all of western Europe, officially creates the post of EU Supreme Chancellor. Their growth is stymied, however, by Eastern Europe's mistrust due to the West's perceived arrogance and condescension. The EU afterward orders that the adoption of the Euro be made mandatory throughout their member states; Norway accepts, but Britain declines. Andorra and Switzerland join to complete EU control of western Europe. Eastern Europe, concerned about EU arrogance and by the growing Russian power, begins to discuss forming their own alliance to protect their interests.



The 2004 Presidential election is shaping up to be a major one. President Hastert will not run because he wishes to be back in Congress, making George Bush the Republican frontrunner, with Secretary of State McCain close behind. Because of his involvement in the Patriot side in the civil war, McCain closes the gap in the primaries and then overtakes Bush in late April. By May, McCain secures the Republican nomination. The Democrats run moderate John Edwards, who is dogged by his past as a Loyalist official; he is the only candidate, however, who does not have very deep ties and is able to run a more convincing race.

September-December - After months of stalemate, rebel forces in China (who have been more openly supported by India and Russia) begin to make bigger gains against the Communists. A nuclear attack by the Chicoms against a group of thousands of rebel refugees is seen as a desperate act and turns more military units against them. Chicom forces also clash with Russian forces as they try to slow the arms shipments; this brings the Russians to declare their support for the rebellion openly. As Russian troops enter Manchuria, more Chinese army units declare in favor of the rebellion and have Beijing surrounded. By the end of the year, Beijing is under siege and most of the rest of what is left of China is in rebel hands.

As expected, Secretary of State McCain is elected President over John Edwards. McCain promises to continue the rebuilding, root out any other terrorist groups, and defend American sovereignty and security. The economy is still sluggish, but the Dow breaks the 5000 mark for the first time in a half decade and people across the land are hopeful.

2005

January-June - President McCain takes the oath of office as leader of the US. He reiterates his promises for a better and united America. Unemployment is low due to the government work programs, but begins to increase as those programs are phased out. Some see the Republicans as moving too quickly and not doing enough to help people who are now out of work. The infrastructure of America has largely been restored and most people seem happy, but a dollar still only buys half of what it did a few years ago, making the average family poorer. The newly unemployed fill the market and have nowhere to work. The Dow Jones, which had made it all the way back to 6500, plummets 2000 points on the infamous "Black Wednesday" in May when reports of earnings and employment are revealed. Fewer people at work means less spending; less spending means less need for production; this leads to more layoffs.

Beijing falls on March 15th after a three and half month siege. Communist leaders are found dead by their own hands, but not before booby-trapping the city and executing people at will. A minor Communist official is arrested and about to be killed when it is revealed that he was under orders to launch all nuclear weapons available in a "Doomsday Scorched Earth" policy; because he backed out of it at the last minute he is spared. Generalissimo Yuan Xiao Ming, who has arisen as leader of the rebellion, is proclaimed President of the new Union of China. The Russian and US Presidents both recognize him immediately, and other world leaders move toward this as well. President Yuan outlines his policy for the New China; Tibet and Xinjiang are to be evacuated; Taiwan, due to its support of the rebellion, is granted full autonomy within the Union. Of course, rebuilding is top priority as is foreign investment; the de-Maofication of China is to commence immediately. Russia is granted a protectorate over Manchuria for five years. Brutal reprisals against even minor Chicom officials take place as thousands are imprisoned and executed. The new government also accepts freedom of religion and association, though speech is still limited and the press is under the control of the new government and the Communist party is "forever banned". The new President also breaks off all contact with North Korea, which plunges that nation further into famine and desperation; the same with VietNam and Laos, who also suffer without Chinese business.

Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Romania, Ukraine, Serbia, Montenegro, Bulgaria, Croatia, Bosnia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia meet to discuss an Eastern alternative to the growing power of the EU. They agree on a similar but looser body to be called the Eastern European Alliance; this is to offset Russia's growing power (adding Georgia, Armenia, and Belarus as protectorates in the last few months) and the EU. The nations talking of this new union also affirm their support of the United States.

At a meeting of the European parliament, the British delegation is ordered to push their government to join the euro. After a heated argument (and almost fight), the British delegation storms out, never to return. At a meeting of NATO members the next month, the EU side begins talk of breaking up the alliance, saying "We don't need outside help anymore. We can do this ourselves." The US ambassador says they are welcome to try, and they storm off. Two days later, the House of Commons calls for a referendum to leave the EU and move toward a closer relationship with the East and with the US. The debate in Britain is heated, but an insulting communiqué from the French President to the German Chancellor calling Britain the "old man of Europe" is leaked out six days before the referendum, causing fury among the public. The referendum passes with 74% of the vote and Britain's Queen pronounces their independence. Shortly thereafter, an official EU army is proclaimed from new EU capital at Strasbourg. The remaining NATO members respond by dissolving what is left of the half-century-old alliance.

July-December - An arms smuggling ring from Mexico is discovered trying to aid the Aztlan resistance in hiding. In a daring move, Colonel Clark Hamilton, a hero of the civil war and one who helped put down the Aztlan revolt, leads a group of soldiers across the border to arrest those suspected of assisting the rebels. With a group of no more than 500 soldiers, he is able to hold off a force of 3000 Mexican forces and still is able to destroy a large weapons cache. Colonel Hamilton is seen by the people of America as the quintessential American hero, unafraid of doing what is right regardless of the consequences. He brushes it off, saying he is only doing his job. President McCain reluctantly gives him a commendation; Mexico, several Latin American nations, and the EU demand an apology for the incursion into Mexican territory. As an aside, a new political party is formed by people convinced that more proactive measures should be taken to restore the national infrastructure, protect the nation, revitalize the economy, and to bring America's pride back. It is mostly composed of retired and discharged military and is called the American Patriot Party. They clamor with the old Democrats and Libertarians, Greens, and other parties to fight the Republicans in charge who seem to not be doing enough to stabilize America. Jobless rates hit 23%; the US dollar continues its fall, plummeting to an all-time low of 45 pence and .58 euros on the world markets.

China and India formalize a nonaggression pact, the signing of which is attended by PM Singh and President Yuan. China also warms relations with Russia, Europe, and the United States, receiving a flow of private investment that gets them on the recovery road quickly. Military rule is providing at least a stable and secure present for China, as well as promises for expanded democracy and rights in the future. In Belgrade, the capital of Serbia, the Eastern European Alliance is formed with the aforementioned nations as signatories. Russia and the EU promise that they have no designs on the territory of EEA members, and welcome the new spirit of cooperation among them. The EEA also begins to talk of forming a unified army, though it goes no further than talk for the moment due to Russian opposition.



2006

January-June - Tensions are once again arising in the Mideast. It has been evident that the fundamentalist states are regrouping, rebuilding, and getting ready for conflict in the future. While oil exports to the US from the countries recognizing the caliphate are at an all-time low, they are still selling to the EU, which seems to have no problem with their form of government. America, though long out of the region, is still seen as the great Satan. Russia as well, now in virtual control of Iran, Turkey, Kurdistan, and Central Asia, is becoming a potential threat and a victim of taunts, flag burnings, and effigies on the streets of the caliphate nations. Israel is still seen as a blemish on the region, and Palestine, despite the growing prosperity in the area, is seen by the radicals as a puppet state of Israel.

North Korean Leader Kim Jong Il dies in an automobile accident in Pyongyang. Dispute over who is to be his successor leads to infighting and then to civil conflict. To prevent one side or the other from gaining control of North Korea's nuclear weapons, China, South Korea, and Japan make a covert pact to seize control of the North while confusion reigns; of course, the South is still worried about Northern aggression, Japan is tired of the repeated battle maneuvers and missile tests, and China is still sore at the North for selling a nuke to Islamic terrorists and supporting the Chicoms in their own civil war. Chinese bombing of North Korean nuclear facilities signals the start of the two-pronged invasion by China and South Korea, with Japan providing material support and the United States defending the South while their soldiers are at war.

The US starts to see election season come around again. The Republicans are running on their record in the civil war, but have little else to show the public why they should be reelected. The Democrats surge in popularity, but again are tainted by the Gore presidency. For the first time, polls across the nation see Green, Libertarian, Constitutional and Patriot candidates with real chances of winning in Congressional elections. President McCain and the other Republicans try more moves to appeal to voters, such as expanded benefits to the unemployed and seniors. The economic problems, however, will not go away and have now thrown much of the rest of the world in a slump and America itself into a true depression.

July-December - One of the most vicious partisan election cycles in history has been going on in America. Personal attacks are at an all-time high, as are cheap shots against parties, groups, and the like. When election day rolls around, no party has a majority in Congress. Republican representation in the House is cut in half. The Democrats are slightly more with 38%. Libertarians come in at 8%, Greens at 5, Constitutionalists at 2, and the new American Patriots make 12% on their first election. Lots of compromising looms to be in the works, but with so many disparate groups in power it does not seem that much can happen. The US and the rest of the world still languish in economic hardship.

Russia and its protectorates sign the Astana treaty to replace the Commonwealth of Independent states with a new more broader-based coalition. The stated goals of the Astana Treaty Organization is to promote cooperation among the member states in social and economic areas, promote the Astana Pact's influence on world affairs, and to curb the rising tide of fundamentalist Islam which threatens ATO members.

The Second Korean War is brutal and bloody. It is only due to the divided loyalties of the Communists that things go as badly as they do for the North, since China can only send limited help due to its process of rebuilding, but President Yuan institutes a draft of any able-bodied men to help out in both construction and war. However, the sides allowed the North to fight itself just long enough to weaken it further beyond that of the famine and disease. The United Army (the successor to the PLA) moves close to Pyongyang, while South Korean troops move slowly into their northern neighbor. A missile hit on a Japanese city officially brings them into the war as an active Allied participant.

2007

January-June - People expected the new Congress to be raucous; they had no idea how bad it would be. Partisan bickering makes OTL's Democrat-Republican feud look like a game of patty-cake. Republicans still see themselves as the saviors of democracy and the Democrats as closet traitors; Democrats look on Republicans as having wasted several years of power and often ask "are you going to use the military on us again?" The smaller parties are busy pushing their own group agendas, except for the Patriots; the newest party in Congress is famed for its quiet work behind the scenes and in bringing about a few compromises on important issues, bringing something of a relief to the almost constant deadlock in passing laws. The Patriots are also very civil and rational, making their appeal even more broad. Around this time, more serious corporate scandals are uncovered, with some of the largest corporations being pulled down by corrupt accounting and management practices. Many corporate bigwigs have profited from government rebuilding contracts at their investors' expense. By summer, 4 of the top 10 corporations in America have filed for bankruptcy. The government's leniency due to the rebuilding process has proved disastrous for America.

Clark Hamilton, now a brigadier general assigned in Washington State, learns of weapons smuggling operations taking place across the Canadian border. Seeing as the FBI is busy with trying to bring order. General Hamilton orders troops to go into Seattle to restore order there when food rioting breaks out. He also sends a commando team into Canada to take down some of the weapons smugglers; they also discover a large drug smuggling ring whose warehouse is bombed. The Canadian government (which has legalized many drugs) issues a vehement protest against his violation of their territory. Many in Washington State also call for his head because of his intervention in Seattle, even though order is restored in a remarkably quick fashion. Some in DC want Hamilton to receive the Medal of Honor; others want him court-martialed and imprisoned. Finally, he agrees to retire from the military with the rank and benefits of a Major General. His goodbye speech becomes a strong tirade against what the government has done and how it has handled the problems of the nation. This stirs up talk of him running for office himself.

July-December - Government shutdown again. People are again talking revolt. The crime rate is staggering, and much of the nation erupts into chaos. The government pushes for more support for the people, but in the process runs up huge deficits, and the national debt hits $25 trillion. The crash slows down by now but there is no sign of recovery. Even the military's pay is cut drastically, leading to more grumbling. Across the world the economy is also in the skids, leading to riots, government collapses, and anarchy in many nations. Much of Africa, Latin America, and Asia have no working governments. The European Union grows closer together and socializes much of the industries of the continent. The Eastern European Alliance also becomes more integrated due to the hardship. Russia and its allies suffer, but not being as affluent as many western nations the effect is not at shocking. China is busy with rebuilding, work programs, and food rationing.

General Hamilton announces his affiliation with the Patriot Party and that he is considering a Presidential run. His accomplishment have been widely reported and his popularity reaches a high across the nation. He says that it is time to enact desperate measures to save the nation from collapse into anarchy and sectionalism. He has become a popular speaker across the nation, and despite the bad economy is able to make a good salary for his speeches, though he gives most of this to charitable programs. A "Draft Hamilton" movement spreads across the nation, and an online petition for his run reaches five million signatures. The political elite begin to worry and try to make ways to impede his possible run.

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